Intro

CHICAGO - 20 June 2019 - 7:40 AM Central - Vic Law plays basketball more like a NBA player than other gentlemen I've watched suit up in purple and white since my days as a ball boy in the 90's. He can handle the rock, bring it up the floor, feed big men in the post, hit teammates in rhythm for shots, nail long 3s,

Stop. Drop. Open up shop. #B1GCats pic.twitter.com/te3cX3Pb1h

— Northwestern Basketball (@NUMensBball) February 24, 2019

back players down in the post, defend college bigs on the block, cover perimeter players beyond the arc, and more.

Does he do all these things consistently excellently?

No.

Should he even have been asked to do all these things by the team?

No.

But did he display these skills projecting as somewhere between a bench wing who can play point in some big lineups and power forward in smaller ones with high energy on the defensive side?

Yes!

Oh, he can also throw down ferocious dunks. As you can see in the first seven seconds of the video below.

And this particular skill he's been honing since high school.

Now, to be clear, I am a Northwestern University basketball fan and I want to see Mr. Law have a career in the NBA, which obviously biases my analysis here. To analyze his prospects from a more objective perspective, let's check what others have written about him.

What Others Say

Victor was one of the 64 players invited to the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, an annual showcase college Senior talent for NBA teams. Mike Gribanov of The Stepian commented on his performance:

Vic Law was one of the better wing defenders in the tournament, had no issue hitting NBA 3s and was better than anticipated as an unselfish ball mover.

Similarly, Reed Hunnicut of Hoop Chain observed the strengths Law's game (in general, not just at PIT) included:

• High-level defender that can disrupt wing players
• Shoots well from three in spot-up situations. Has 3-and-D potential
• Will be a ball mover that doesn’t let the ball stick. Should be able to fit into the flow of offenses

Reed also noted some weaknesses:

• Doesn’t finish in the lane as well as you would expect for a wing of his size
• More of a one-move scorer than a creative isolation scorer. His upside as a one-on-one scorer is limited
• Fought various injuries during his time at Northwestern. Durability is in question

Injuries are a concern for all players, but I feel Law has recovered well since missing the 2015-16 season with a torn labrum. He played in all 36 games the following year, then missed five as a junior and two his senior year. His freshman year before the injury he played in all 32 contests.

Tankathon lists his 5 "stat strenghs" as including assists and projected 3 point percentage. And his 12 "stat weaknesses" include Draft Age, FG%, Offensive Rating, Offensive Rebounds, and Win Shares.

Davis Rich of Inside NU is a Northwestern alum, so he is likely partisan in favor of Mr. Law. That clarified, his 2017 analysis of Law's NBA outlook also commented on Vic's 3-and-D potential (similar to Reed):

Law’s path to the NBA will undoubtedly be an uphill climb. He has the basic outline for a 3-and-D role player at the next level given his length, athleticism, defensive ability, and shooting stroke, but his skills and body need to develop to climb up draft boards. Over the next season or two, Law will need to become a lockdown perimeter defender and a consistent knockdown three-point shooter to attract the attention of NBA scouts.

What the Numbers Say

Looking at the numbers we see a young man who worked on continually improving his craft on both ends of the court. Each year his average per game rebounds, assists, blocks, and points stayed steady or increased. As did his Defensive Box Plus/Minus, a number designed to capture his defensive impact. His turnovers also grew, which is not ideal, but did so at a slower rate than his assists. His assist to turnover ratio went from .9 as a freshman to 1.4 as a senior.

His senior year when he was asked to do a lot more. Some talented teammates graduated and their projected starting point guard had his scholarship revoked. His usage went up as he was required to handle the ball and create more than ever before. With the increased responsibility and defensive attention, his three point percentage dropped. Given the 3-and-D projections noted above, that is a tough hit on his NBA prospects.

But what do those college numbers mean for his NBA future?

To answer that I adapted some of the fantastic models from Dribble Analytics (as I've done before). Specifically there were models projecting Points Per Game and Defensive Box Plus/Minus for how some 2018 NBA Draft picks would play in their rookie year. Only players with college experience in the USA were included.

There were three scoring models, I chose to use the ridge regression one because it gave Trae Young the most projected points and he ended up being the highest scorer from a US college in the rookie class (Luka Doncic was the highest overall rookie). As you can see in the chart below, it projects Vic Law to average 10 PPG. Obviously future minutes are not taken into account here, but compared to Jacob Evans, another wing, who was drafted by the Warriors, Law had similar projections.

In order to gauge the usefulness of the projection, let's look at how those rooks actually played (NBA data from Basketball Reference).

The model successfully predicted Young and Sexton as the top two scorers. You can see it was very accurate for Kevin Knox, close for Sexton and Bridges, and 4 to 8 points off for the rest. The main point here is not the perfection of the model, but that Law projects within range for gentlemen who were actually drafted and played in the NBA last year.

How about defense?

I chose to combine the results of the 3 models (linear, ridge, and lasso regression) as none of the individual ones really stood out to me. Similar to his college career Law looks to have a positive DBPM. How did this model compare to the real world?

Aside from Robert Williams (who looks like he might help the Celtics next year?) this model feels more accurate than the points one. Aside from the rows in orange, seven of the ten projections were directionally correct (i.e., positive projected DBPM was positive in the NBA and vice versa). Taking that into account Law's projected .2 DBPM is encouraging given his defense needs to be solid for him to make it and stay in the league. Note his 6'11" wingspan is factored into this and should really help his cause (thanks PIT for the measurables). Also relevant here is that he was selected for the 2016-17 All-Big Ten Defensive Team.

Beyond the data listed above, KenPom, the best college basketball website in the world, listed his block percentage of 3.1 was good for 376th in the nation and 21st in the Big Ten. None of the similar player comparisons from his senior year played in the NBA. As a junior though, he was similar to Danuel House who played twenty minutes per game for the Rockets this year in the playoffs.

Will he be in the NBA?

• Being drafted? 25%
• Playing in summer league? 80%
• Being invited to training camp? 75%
• Making a NBA roster? 60%

He's gotten better over time, shown an ability to slide across roles, hits threes, and can defend across multiple positions. His game is better suited for an NBA role player than it was for what he was asked to do in college. I don't think he will be drafted, but (even noting my bias) he'll be in the league at the start of the 2019-20 season.

Contact

Do you agree? No? Please let me know via email to htricker@yahoo.com or tweet to @danoff. My homepage is danoff dot org.